Ah, August in the rugby-loving southern hemisphere. The peaks and valleys of the July Tests are firmly in the rearview mirror (though I still have some drop goal-related PTSD…) and the Rugby Championship stretches out before us like a favourite road trip. A trip we’ve taken so many times that we know the route like the back of our hands, but one that can still deliver a few surprises along the way. It’s a heady sense of anticipation wrapped in familiarity and traditions.
And traditionally, the games we anticipate the most are always against the All Blacks. But what of the Springboks’ first stops on this little adventure? The rivalry with the Wallabies doesn’t quite compare to the one we have with the All Blacks (nothing does), but it’s a fascinating one. I started thinking about our dismal record in Australia over the weekend, and fell down a stats rabbit hole. As you do.
Before I took that little detour, I was under the impression that, while it’s actually a pretty close contest, we have a slight advantage over the Wallabies in terms of win-loss ratios. And that is true when you look at all the games we’ve ever played against them – in 93 games since the first time the teams played each other in 1933, the Boks have won 50 times (53.8%). But. That changes if you only look at the professional era, which I think is the more meaningful measure when you consider how different the game is as a result of professionalisation, and in particular how Springbok rugby has evolved post-democracy.
Although the teams started playing each other as far back as 1933, the bulk of their encounters have still taken place after the sport turned professional in August 1995 – 60 to be exact (and this excludes the 1995 RWC, since it took place just before the shift to professionalism). And Australia have won half of those games. So – it’s 50/50 then, right? Nope. Three annoying draws, two of which took place in the same tournament in 2017, mean that the Boks have won 27 – if we take the draws out of the equation, we’re looking at a 52.6% win rate for the Wallabies vs 47.4% for the Boks. It’s pretty close.
Where it’s not close, and where it gets really interesting, is when you start looking at home vs away wins. We all know homeground advantage has a role to play, and arguably even more so when the teams playing each other have to travel around 11,000km and across a few time zones to do it. But it’s pretty staggering when you look at how these teams have fared against each other away from home. Of those 60 games in the professional era, 27 have been in South Africa, and 31 in Australia, with two taking place in neutral venues (the 1999 and 2011 World Cups in England and New Zealand…we don’t talk about that one), both of which were won by Australia. At the time of writing, South Africa has only won five games in Australia. Five. Out of 31. They’ve also drawn twice there. Similarly, Australia has only won four times, and drawn once, in South Africa.
It puts us in an interesting position. On the one hand, the Boks are back-to-back World Cup winners, and number one in the world. On the other hand, the stats don’t lie. We struggle in Australia. Does that make us the underdogs in this game? At the same time, the Wallabies are coming off the back of a dire World Cup. And while they have changed course, claiming three from three in the July Tests, many would argue that they hold that underdog status. That this is likely our best chance to add another two to that away wins tally. It very well could be – the team Rassie has selected for Saturday’s opener is certainly more than up for the challenge. Admittedly, I’d be less nervous about this game if the Wallabies still had Eddie at the wheel, but with Joe Schmidt in charge, it’s harder to predict. And since the Boks actually thrive as underdogs, I’ll gladly take that tag (isn’t it funny how many teams are loathe to admit when they have the upper hand – the psychology of rugby is a whole other trip).
Whichever way you look at it, and whoever you deem to be the underdogs, maybe it’s time to get a lot more excited about our rivalry with the Wallabies. I know I can’t wait for this contest – and the fact that the stadium in Brisbane has sold out for the first time since 2013, suggests plenty of others can’t wait either. Never mind worrying about getting up early to watch the game on Saturday, the real question is will I be able to sleep on Friday night at all?
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